Is the Bitcoin bear market almost over?
The last three Bitcoin bear markets each lasted about a year from top to bottom. Here is where the 2025 cycle stands, on one chart of real prices since 2015.
Bar: days since the top. The white mark is day 380, the average length of the last three bear markets.
Weekly BTC-USD closes from Coinbase, log scale. Gold dots are cycle tops, green dots cycle bottoms (daily highs and lows).
How long Bitcoin bear markets last
| Cycle | Top | Bottom | Days | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 cycle (pre-Coinbase, approximate) | 2013-12-04 ≈$1,150 | 2015-01-14 ≈$170 | 406 | about -85% |
| 2017 cycle | 2017-12-17 $19,892 | 2018-12-15 $3,129 | 363 | -84% |
| 2021 cycle | 2021-11-10 $69,000 | 2022-11-21 $15,460 | 376 | -78% |
| 2025 cycle (lowest low so far) | 2025-10-06 $126,296 | 2026-07-01 $57,718 | 268 | -54% |
Coinbase BTC-USD daily data from July 2015. 2013 figures are approximate (Bitstamp era). The 2025 row shows the lowest low so far, not a confirmed bottom.
"385 days from the top to the bottom"
On 26 October 2026 James G walked through the cycle on air: past bear markets ran about 385 days, and by that count the 2025 bear market should end around now, followed, if history rhymes, by a long run up. He was equally clear that "it's not guaranteed to follow the 4-year cycles", so he keeps buying in steps at support instead of all at once.
The 4-year cycle, briefly
What is Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?
Bitcoin has tended to move in roughly four-year waves tied to its halving, when the new-coin reward is cut in half: a run to a cycle top, a bear market of about a year, then recovery. The halvings were in July 2016, May 2020 and April 2024.
How long do Bitcoin bear markets last?
From cycle top to cycle bottom: about 406 days in 2013-15, 363 days in 2017-18 and 376 days in 2021-22, an average of roughly 380 days. James G rounds it to about 385 days.
When was the 2025 top?
On Coinbase, Bitcoin's highest price of the cycle was $126,296 on 6 October 2025. The lowest low since then is $57,718 on 1 July 2026.
Is the bear market over?
Nobody knows. 385 days after the 2025 top fell in late October 2026, which is why James G said the cycle 'should' bottom around now. He was clear the cycle is not guaranteed to repeat.
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Not financial advice. Past cycles do not predict future prices.